Tempo Madness

So after establishing a new VDOT via a 2:50 1/2 mile I've now got in about two weeks of trying out the new paces. I've done 2 8-mile long runs at 8:30 or so (somewhat quicker out, as it's slightly downhill, somewhat slower back). No problems there. I've also done 2 tempo runs. The first went like this: 7:04 pace for 8 1/4 minutes, 7:32 pace for next 8 3/4 minutes. Total of 17 minutes and an overall 7:20 pace. The pace was supposed to be 7:02. The duration was supposed to be 20 minutes. This was done on the road/sidewalk so you could say the footing wasn't that great -- but footing wasn't the issue. Part of the issue was that I probably ran the first few minutes at around 6:50 pace and then just slowed from there. So today I did the tempo run on the treadmill. Did the whole 20 minutes at 8.5 mph (7:03 pace) with the incline at 2% for the 1st 10 minutes, then 1.5% for 2.5, 1.0% for 2.5, and 0.5% for the last 5 minutes. At the 10-minute mark my HR was 170. At the 15-minute mark it had dropped to 165. After the full 20 minutes it had dropped to 160 -- which is pretty much exactly the 90% of max HR that a tempo run should be at. If it's not too cold next Thursday I'll try the tempo run outdoors on the flat cinder marsh loop. The week after that I plan running a 5k race. Originally I was planning on shooting for a 7:00 pace with 21:00 as on outside long-shot goal. Now maybe I'll shoot for 6:30 pace with 20:00 as a long-shot. Or maybe I'll blow up and run 23:00. We will have to see.